Government releases thermoelectrics operation in drying affected areas in the North Region

That news is incoherent, disconnected from reality and published as if it were announcing something unusual. Firstly, because the national system is interconnected and fully integrated. Secondly, this practice is common and has been increased the participation of thermoelectric every year. Our monthly bill of energy reflects this more significant participation of thermoelectric, whose generation’s cost is more superior than hydroelectrics, resulting in annual increases above inflation in the energy bill paid by brazilian society. 

It is important to understand the reason for this change in the National Integrated System - SIN basis, which interconnects all electricity generating power plants in Brazil, whose base needs to be a constant energy source. By the initial conception, the base was and continues to be hydric, hydroelectric plants with large reservoirs, which is the most economical way to store electricity. However, our control agencies have criminalized our hydroelectric complexes and make it difficult to build new complexes. When they allow, they require them to be flush (without or with small reservoirs), making them intermittent, as well as wind and photovoltaic plants. This mistaken decision was made due to unpreparedness or incompetence.

The proof of this is the construction of Belo Monte hydroelectric plants, considerate the third or fourth largest on the planet (located in Pará, precisely on the Xingu River), Jirau and Santo Antônio (both in Rondônia, on the Madeira River), which are among the five largest in Brazil. They are semi-paralyzed from August to mid-November because they do not have reservoirs, wasting millions of megawatts so important for the national electricity sector. The civil society regrets, but nothing can do.

However, I believe that the motivation behind the news was to draw attention to the "drying in the North", which translates into "drying in the Amazon", something that is not unprecedented. This is a complicated but natural and cyclical phenomenon. In the last century, this phenomenon occurred in 1906, 1916, 1926, 1936, 1958, 1963 and 1997, and in this century it occurred in 2005, 2010 and 2023, always in the period from june to october, rarely extending into november. 

The origin is well known and has been studied extensively: when the warming of the North Atlantic coincides with the El Niño phenomenon, which naturally causes rain in the south and drying in the equatorial region of the Amazon. This coincidence causes the trade winds, which move from east to west, to blow weakly, and they are responsible for the humidity in the Amazon biome. I always advocate that information reaches society accurately. It bothers me how some of our leaders use facts, especially in relation to the climate. 

For example, during the seminar "Paths to a Just Energy Transition in Brazil", held on 10/11/2023, Dr. Ana Toni, Secretary for Climate Change (MMA), during her speech, I don't know if as a technician or if she prophesied, said: "there will increasingly be drying in the Amazon and floods in the South". By the importance of the seminar, this statement should be accompanied by data.

As for the floods in the south, they vary in intensity due to El Niño and are recurrent. As for the drying in the Amazon, it is a cyclical phenomenon, and the dryings that occurred in 1963 and 1906 were the biggest; however, the one in 1926 was the most dramatic. So far, the drying of 2023 has not reached the level of the largest or most dramatic dryings.

I understand that the mention of drying in the Amazon is intended to attract attention to a 5 o'clock tea in Paris or to greet King Charles in England, since the word "Amazon" tends to provoke various types of delirium in our friends in the "first world".

Making a simple chronological analysis, it is clear that the phenomenon of drying in the Amazon would not affect the national electricity system, since that the Belo Monte, Jirau and Santo Antônio plants had been built in a conventional way, with reservoirs suitable for their maximum powers, aiming for the highest possible production all over the year. 

The period of greatest water flow for both the Xingu River and the Madeira River is from november to march, and both are tributaries of the right bank of the Amazon River. The Amazon drying, when it occurs, is from june to october, and is more severe in the tributaries on the left bank of the Amazon. The data explains itself.

I close this opinion piece with the phrase: "The incompetent always find a scapegoat to blame for their own incompetence," whose author I don't know. In conclusion, the scapegoat of the time is the drying in the Amazon.