“Brazil is ready to resume its leading role in the fight against the climate crisis, protecting all our biomes, above all, the Amazon rainforest”. The announcement was made by Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, from Partido dos Trabalhadores (PT), in his first address to the nation, after being elected the next president of Brazil, on October 30th. On several occasions, Lula referred to the Amazon as one of the priorities in his presidential term, stressing that “Brazil and the planet need a living Amazon”, and that international cooperation can come “in the form of investment or scientific research, but, always under the leadership of Brazil, without ever renouncing our sovereignty”. The new president also reinforced the commitment to create the Ministry of Native Peoples, placing an indigenous person at the leading position.

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After the presidential election outcome, leaders from different countries expressed interest in collaborating with Brazil, under Lula’s direction. The Norwegian Minister of Environment, Espen Barth Eide was one of the first, who announced, on October 31, less than 24 hours after voting results, the release of resources from the Amazon Fund, which had been blocked since the beginning of the current government. During the week, the Secretary of State of the German Ministry for Cooperation and Development, Jochen Flasbarth, another country that finances the Amazon Fund, also spoke about the resumption of the partnership.

The Fund was created in 2008, with the aim of raising financial resources from other countries to preserve the Amazon and contribute to the fight against climate change. Norway and Germany stopped sending funds in 2019, after a series of disagreements with the current president, Jair Bolsonaro. “This resumption of investments is very important for Brazil, because every resource that comes to support the defense of the Amazon is valid and is also a sign of strengthening international partnerships that can impact other segments, such as the country's economy”, emphasizes José Claudio Warken, professor at the State University of Pará (UEPA) and master in political science.

Zero deforestation - For the next term, Lula reinforced his commitment to “fight for zero deforestation in the Amazon”. According to the Mapbiomas project, a collaborative network formed by Non-Governmental Organizations (NGOs), universities and technology startups, the Amazon concentrated 59% of the deforested area in 2021, with more than 977 thousand hectares of native vegetation destroyed last year.

In his speech, on October 30, Lula also said that he will “resume the monitoring and surveillance of the Amazon and fight any and all illegal activities – whether mining, prospections, logging or undue agricultural occupation”, which are some of the biggest concerns of researchers in the area today. The mining area in Brazil has doubled in just a decade: from 99,000 hectares to 196,000 hectares between 2010 and 2021, according to MapBiomas.

However, fulfilling these promises during the next term should be one of the hardest challenges for Lula. This was the presidential election with the smallest difference between candidates since the redemocratization process: 50.90% of the votes for Lula against 49.10% for Jair Bolsonaro, candidate of the Liberal Party (PL), the current president of the country. With such a fierce dispute and a divided population, the country faces a challenging polarization, whose impacts are reflected in the Brazilian Amazon.

Internal stabilization can impact international reliance

According to internationalist Kellimeire Campos, one of the obstacles that will immediately need to be faced and overcome by the new president of the Republic refers to international relationships, in an effective and lasting way, that means bonds that go beyond the first signs of partnership already announced. “It will be very intense and arduous work for the diplomacy team that will start in January. Lula will need to stabilize the country internally so that, little by little, international trust can be regained, and this must be achieved through economic and environmental policies,” explains Campos.

Kellimeire affirms, historically, Brazil has maintained a presence on the international scene, especially for having a clear position of the State in defense of human rights, promotion of peace, cooperation and integration with the rest of Latin America. However, in the current government, these goals have not been taken as priorities, generating international distrust and weakening ties with other countries, which “is also a consequence of the internal crises we have been facing, such as the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic and the high rates of deforestation in the Amazon”, she emphasizes.

Opposition is strong in the amazonian bench

Another challenge ahead for Lula, as of 2023, is the presence of a strong opposition, both in state executive spheres and in Congress and Senate. Regarding the national scene, 14 state governors are in opposition, 11 are allies and 2 are neutral so far. Within the Amazon region, elected governors Helder Barbalho (MDB-Pará), Clécio Luís (Solidariedade-Amapá) and Carlos Brandão (PSB-Maranhão) are allies, in contrast to six opposers.

Rondônia, in fact, was the only Brazilian federative unit, besides the Federal District, in which Lula lost in all municipalities, both in the 1st and 2nd ballot rounds. In Rondônia, the current governor, Colonel Marcos Rocha (União Brasil), won in 2018 and was re-elected this year, with Bolsonaro's support.
In the 1st round, Lula was ahead in the states of Amazonas, Pará, Tocantins, Maranhão and Amapá – in the latter, his party lost the lead in the 2nd round.

“New Right-Wing voices” grow louder in the region

Ivan Silva, vice-general coordinator of the Laboratory of Geopolitical Studies of the Amazon (LEGAL), says there is a strong growth of candidates, in all spheres, of the so-called “novas direitas”, a set of political, ideological and social expressions. “Although there is a multiplicity of lineages of  'novas direitas', there is a common trait that is new in Brazil: the combination of economic liberalism and moral conservatism”, he summarizes.

An evidence of this scenario is the fact that the parties União Brasil (center-right) and PL (right-wing) elected representatives in all nine State Legislative Assemblies of the Brazilian Amazon. PL was also the party with the largest number of elected federal deputies in the region and União Brasil has the largest number of elected representatives in the Senate of the nine states. Silva also remarks Rondônia as an example of a state in the Amazon clearly signaling opposition to the future president and expressive growth of the so-called “new right” parties.

The political scientist from Pará, Rodolfo Marques, points out that, in general, voters consider their vote differently, for each position. Thus, even in states where Lula, a candidate of the left-wing, won, there may be greater expression of the right parties in the decision for deputies, senators and even governors. The reason is that part of the voters tend to consider the candidate individually, not necessarily linking them to the ideological line they represent. “The elections are individual concerning the voter's decision”, he explains.

Agribusiness shows off its strength in the ballot

Agribusiness was one of the impacting themes in the elections in the Amazon, especially in states such as Rondônia, Roraima and Mato Grosso, according to Ivan Silva, vice coordinator of LEGAL. “We can still see the presence of a discourse that was used a lot in the 1970s, as if preserving the environment was opposed to economic development, in fact, we already know that both can and should go together”, he states.

The state of Mato Grosso, for example, experienced the third highest deforestation rate in 2021, according to a MapBiomas survey. Simultaneously, it was the state where the profiting from Brazilian agriculture was the highest in 2020, reaching more than R$ 118 billion Reais. The current governor there, Mauro Mendes (União Brasil), was reelected in the 1st round, with 68.45% of the votes. His vice is Otaviano Pivetta (Republicanos), an outstanding person  in the rural sector in Mato Grosso.

Commitment to social issues did not ensure significant advantage

In the Amazon region, approximately 42.24% of the population lives in the poverty line, totaling more than 12.5 million people. Four of the 10 states with the highest percentage of poor people in the country are in this region, according to a survey by Fundação Getúlio Vargas (FGV). The first two places in this ranking are Maranhão and Amazonas, where Lula won. According to the political scientist Rodolfo Marques, this reiterates Lula’s greater connection to social causes. “On the other hand, Jair Bolsonaro and his allies are more related to agriculture, but when the agenda is poverty and environmental issues, Lula seems to be able to dialogue more easily”, he evaluates.

Even so, considering the margin of votes in the second round, Lula's victory in the region was very tight. In total, concerning the nine states of the Legal Amazon, 7,911,395 votes were for Lula and 7,081,820 for Jair Bolsonaro, a difference of less than 830,000 votes. In the final vote count throughout Brazil, the final difference between the two was exactly 2,139,645 votes. 

Consortium of Governors may be an agreement way 

Among the nine states in the Amazon region, seven elected governors are incumbent and will run a second term. Despite the low renewal of the position, the political scientist Rodolfo Marques analyzes that there must be changes in the dynamics between the governors, especially in relation to the Forum of Governors of the Legal Amazon, created to be a space for dialogue among the states, focusing on the increase in competitiveness and sustainability in the region, and which, since 2017, has also become a consortium. The current president of the group is the governor of Amapá, Waldez Góes, who will remain in the position until December 2022, but the re-elected governors of Pará, Helder Barbalho, and Amazonas, Wilson Lima, emerge with great protagonism, according to Rodolfo.

The Consortium invited Lula last Tuesday (November 1st) to join the delegation of governors of the Amazon for the 2022 United Nations Conference on Climate Change, which will take place in Egypt, from the 6th to the 18th of this month. “We are working hard for the regulation of the low carbon economy and Lula would be a fundamental reinforcement in this fight to combine economic development with sustainability”, said Helder Barbalho. Lula accepted the invitation and will join the delegation.

Check out, below, the pronouncements of international leaders to the elected president, Lula
 

• Joe Biden (president of the United States): “I send my congratulations to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva on his election to be the next president of Brazil following free, fair, and credible elections. I look forward to working together to continue the cooperation between our two countries in the months and years ahead”;
• Justin Trudeau (President of Canada): “The people of Brazil have spoken. I look forward to working with Lula to strengthen the partnership between our countries, achieving results for Canadians and Brazilians, and advancing in shared priorities - such as protecting the environment. Congratulations, Lula!”;
• Pedro Sánchez (President of Spain): “Congratulations, Lula, for the victory in this election when Brazil decided to root for progress and hope. Let's work together for social justice, equality and against climate change. Your success will belong to the Brazilian people. #BrasilDaEsperança;
• Emmanuel Macron (President of France): “Congratulations, dear Lula, on your election that opens a new page in the history of Brazil. Together, we will join forces to face the many in-common challenges and renew the bond of friendship between our two countries”;
• Olaf Scholz (German Chancellor): “Congratulations, Lula, on your election! I look forward to close and confident cooperation with Brazil - especially on trade and climate protection issues”;
• Alberto Fernández (President of Argentina): “Congratulations, Lula! Your victory begins a new era in Latin American history. An era of hope and a future that begins today”;
• António Costa (Prime Minister of Portugal): “I have already had the opportunity to warmly congratulate Lula on his election as President of the Republic of Brazil. I look forward to our work together in the coming years with great enthusiasm, in favor of Portugal and Brazil, but also concerning the major global causes”;
• Luis Alberto Arce (President of Bolivia): “Congratulations, brother Lula, elected president of Brazil! Your victory strengthens Latin American democracy and integration. We are sure that you will lead the Brazilian people along the path of peace, progress and social justice”;
• Luis Almagro, General Secretary of the Organization of American States (OAS): “My appreciation to the people of Brazil for a great democratic journey in the 2022 Elections. I congratulate the new President Lula on his victory. Count on the OAS to work on strengthening democracy, human rights, security and development in our region”.